Future of Cement in India: Key Updates and 2025 Growth Outlook
The Indian cement industry is poised for growth in 2025, expecting improved sales realizations, higher margins, and accelerated demand. This optimism is largely fuelled by government infrastructure spending and the ongoing consolidation within the industry, driven by two major players: UltraTech Cement (part of the Aditya Birla Group) and Ambuja Cements (led by billionaire Gautam Adani).
Key Developments in the Cement Sector:
- Acquisitions and Capacity Expansion: Both UltraTech Cement and Adani’s Ambuja Cements are making substantial investments to expand their market share. Together, they are acquiring over 50 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) capacity for approximately USD 4.5 billion. Adani Cement, which entered the sector relatively recently, has significantly expanded its footprint by acquiring several cement companies, including Saurashtra-based Sanghi Industries and Penna Industries, and a recent agreement to acquire CK Birla Group’s Orient Cement. With these acquisitions, Adani Cement crossed a 100 MTPA capacity, and plans are in place to reach 140 MTPA by FY28, nearly matching UltraTech Cement’s 156.66 MTPA capacity.
- Consolidation and Industry Leadership: The cement sector is seeing increased consolidation, with UltraTech Cement and Ambuja Cements collectively controlling a significant portion of India’s cement production capacity. In fact, the top five cement producers now account for approximately 60–65% of the industry’s total capacity. UltraTech Cement, aiming to maintain its lead, plans to reach 200 MTPA capacity by FY27, underscoring its aggressive growth strategy.
Industry Challenges and Trends in 2024:
- Declining Cement Prices: The first half of FY25 saw a 10% year-on-year decline in cement prices, with the average price dropping from Rs 365 per bag in FY24 to Rs 330 per bag. This price drop reflects challenges within the industry, including moderate capacity utilization and lower sales realizations. Despite this, cement prices recovered on a month-to-month basis, rising by 2% in September 2024 compared to the previous month.
- Lower Growth in 2024: Cement industry growth in 2024 slowed to around 4.5–5.5%, compared to a more robust 10% growth in previous years. This slowdown was attributed to several factors: A prolonged heatwave and labour shortages during general elections. Seasonal monsoon disruptions that affected construction activity.
- Capacity Utilization and Volumes: Capacity utilization levels remained moderate at 70%, as several players struggled with underutilized capacity due to slow growth in demand and the impact of low cement prices. However, the industry’s outlook for the second half of FY25 is more optimistic, with expectations of a 4-5% increase in cement volumes driven by higher rural consumption, increased urban housing demand, and a boost in government infrastructure spending.
Outlook for 2025 and Beyond:
- Government Infrastructure Push: A significant boost to the sector is expected from the government’s increased expenditure on infrastructure projects. This is anticipated to drive a rise in cement demand, especially in the housing and rural sectors. The industry’s growth is also being supported by higher capital expenditure from both the government and private sector players, which is likely to result in greater cement consumption.
- Capacity Additions and Expected Growth: The Indian cement industry is adding 35 MTPA of capacity in FY25, with an additional 70-75 MTPA capacity expected to come online in FY25-26. Despite this, overall capacity utilization is expected to remain moderate at 70% due to a lag in demand catching up with supply. The Cement Manufacturers’ Association (CMA) forecasts that cement volumes will grow by 4-5% year-on-year, reaching 445-450 million MT in FY25.
- Industry Transformation: The cement industry is undergoing a transformation, driven by a growing emphasis on sustainability, innovations, and increased demand for both housing and infrastructure. The Indian cement market, which now has a total capacity of 690 million tonnes, is expected to see improved price realizations and better capacity utilization in the coming years.